The forthcoming article “Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism” by Leonardo Baccini and Thomas Sattler is summarized by the author(s) below.
Fiscal austerity – spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the public deficit –hurt economically vulnerable voters, e.g. low-skilled workers. We show that these vulnerable voters turn towards populist parties when their government implements austerity.
Our analysis covers the period from 1991 onwards and examines election results in electoral districts across Western European countries. Vulnerable voters are workers with a low level of education, those in the manufacturing sector, and those with routine jobs. These voters are exposed to the greatest risk to lose their jobs because of globalization or automation. A standard austerity package increases vote shares of populist parties between 3 and 5 percentage points in districts with many low education / manufacturing / routine job workers. The same package has no effect on populist vote shares in districts with fewer vulnerable voters.
The results have several important implications. First, governments matter. Policies implemented by governments have a variety of ways to moderate the adverse effects of economic transformations, e.g. through redistribution. However, if policies fail to do so or if they enhance the unequal distributional consequences of globalization and automation even further, populist parties can exploit the growing anti-globalization sentiment among dissatisfied voters. Second, austerity matters. Governments may be able to build a pro-austerity coalition and a majority of voters may not object against or even approve of austerity. Still, the political consequences of austerity measures are unavoidable: Many vulnerable voters turn away from traditional parties transforming politics for a long time to come. Third, vulnerability matters. Voters hold very diverse attitudes about fiscal policy that seem most strongly affected by their ideological views. But when it comes to cast a ballot, voters’ material interests, i.e. the effect of austerity on their welfare, is a defining factor to understand their political preferences and behavior.
About the Author(s): Leonardo Baccini is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and an associate member in the Department of Economics at McGill University and Thomas Sattler is a Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Geneva, Switzerland. Their research “Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism” is now available in Early View and will appear in a forthcoming issue of the American Journal of Political Science.
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