The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence

The forthcoming article “The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence” by Matthew A. Baum, James N. Druckman, Matthew D. Simonson, Jennifer Lin, Roy H. Perlis is summarized by the author(s) below. 

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 election highlighted two concerning trends in contemporary America: increasing rates of depression and the possibility, if not the reality, of political violence. Despite frequent simplistic portrayals between mental health and political violence, little is known about whether and when the two relate to one another. Recent work makes clear that mental health can have notable effects on politics–depression reduces turnout and can be a byproduct of polarized elections. In this paper, we extend work on mental health and politics by exploring the relationship between depression and support for political violence. We theorize that depression on its own is unrelated or possibly negatively related to support for political violence. That said, when it is conjoined with conspiratorial beliefs or a participatory inclination (i.e., a habit of political participation), and especially in the presence of both, it should positively relate to support for political violence. Depression can breed a sense of loss of control. Conspiracy beliefs provide a target to blame for that sense of loss. A participatory inclination, in turn, increases the likelihood that an individual will view taking or supporting action against those perceived as culpable as a means of regaining the lost sense of control. We test these expectations with a large panel survey that included measures of support for election violence and the January 6th insurrection (immediately after it occurred). The data strongly support our expectations: we find that among those who hold conspiracy beliefs or have participatory inclinations, and especially among those with both characteristics, depression is positively associated with support for election violence and the Capitol riot. The effects of a participatory inclination are particularly robust for men, who, more than women, tend to respond to depression by attempting to assert control through overt activity. Moreover, they hold across parties and support for Trump—that is, the relationships are orthogonal to party identification or candidate preference. We find that interventions to reduce depression could substantially reduce support for violence (potentially by 15 percentage points or more). These relationships suggest that taking steps to vitiate the illness (rather than criticize those experiencing it) could be vital not only for personal and public health but also for democracy. 

About the Author(s): Matthew A. Baum is the Marvin Kalb Professor of Global Communications and Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, James N. Druckman is the Payson S. Wild Professor of Political Science and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University, Matthew D. Simonson is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jennifer Lin is a Ph.D. candidate at the Department of Political Science at Northwestern University and Roy H. Perlis is the Director of the Center for Quantitative Health at Massachusetts General Hospital. Their research “The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence” is now available in Early View and will appear in a forthcoming issue of the American Journal of Political Science.