The forthcoming article “Economic risk perceptions and willingness to learn about globalization: A field experiment with migrants and other underprivileged groups in Vietnam” by Niccolò W. Bonifai, Edmund J. Malesky, and Nita Rudra is summarized by the author(s) below.
Seeking greater information about the economy can empower people to both avoid potential hazards and seize emerging opportunities. Such efforts are especially crucial for the disadvantaged because lower socioeconomic status affects their susceptibility to, vulnerability during, and ability to recover from significant economic changes. Previous work has emphasized the role of education in information-seeking behavior, particularly with respect to globalization, but has frequently overlooked when and how less educated and disadvantaged groups pursue information to change their circumstances. In this article, we designed a field experiment to test whether disadvantaged groups respond to economic risks —defined as events that may lead to significant income loss or gain (Knight 1921) – by searching for information on the pending global integration. Although most groups did not respond to the treatment, internal migrants, particularly those engaged in manufacturing industries, were highly motivated to learn and prepare themselves for the future.
Our theoretical framework draws on the Risk, Information, and Processing (RISP) model developed by Griffin et al. (1999) to explain the conditions under which disadvantaged individuals are motivated to educate themselves about the implications of trade liberalization. We consider a pending trade agreement as a proxy for individual economic risk because trade reforms can deliver substantial economic shocks to developing economies, impacting the daily lives and incomes of large segments of the workforce.
We hypothesize that internal migrants will be more inclined to seek information in response to risks associated with trade integration for two primary reasons. First, they possess a comparative advantage over other vulnerable groups in their originating locations, enabling them to exploit new opportunities and relocate as needed. Second, they face heightened vulnerability post-economic shocks due to discrimination in their destination areas. This is because globalization intensifies labor market competition, leading natives to resent competing for jobs with migrants (real or perceived). This unique combination of relative strength and vulnerability makes migrants particularly responsive to perceptions of economic risk, thus driving their proactive pursuit of information regarding the effects of globalization.
To test our hypothesis, we conducted a randomized experiment with a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese citizens, assessing their knowledge of the macroeconomic and microeconomic distributional effects of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the largest trade agreement in the country’s history. Given the complexity of the EVFTA’s impacts on local jobs, we anticipate that exposure to economic risk will heighten respondents’ willingness to learn about the actual effects of the agreement.
Our findings indicate that while economic risk does not motivate all respondents to seek information about the EVFTA, internal migrants demonstrate a pronounced willingness to do so. Specifically, when primed with economic risk, migrants are 187% more likely to visit the trade website compared to untreated migrants. This effect is particularly pronounced among manufacturing migrants, who typically work in more comparative advantaged sectors, often for foreign-invested enterprises in industrial zones. This analysis suggests a shift in focus from merely assessing trade or economic literacy to evaluating a “willingness to learn” about global economic shocks.
Our research contributes to the literature on information seeking, political economy, development, and public policy in emerging markets. First, we demonstrate that individuals with low socioeconomic status actively seek information in response to significant economic risk, empowering these disadvantaged groups to become pivotal players in the politics of globalization.
Second, our work offers new insights into development dynamics and “poverty traps.” Respondents facing scarcity tend to be task constrained, making them less responsive to risk and less likely to seek information about job opportunities – and losses- created by globalization. At the same time, individuals not burdened by extreme poverty—such as migrants—exhibit a strong desire to acquire knowledge about globalization. This knowledge equips them to improve their living standards and can contribute to broader economic development.
About the Author(s): Niccolò W. Bonifai is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Government at Georgetown University, Edmund J. Malesky is a professor of political economy at Duke University, and Nita Rudra is is a Professor of Government at Georgetown University. Their research “Economic risk perceptions and willingness to learn about globalization: A field experiment with migrants and other underprivileged groups in Vietnam” is now available in Early View and will appear in a forthcoming issue of the American Journal of Political Science.